Prisco’s Week 13 NFL Pick: 49ers cool off Tua Dolphins, Chiefs get revenge on Bengals in one-point thriller

The trifecta almost passed last week.

I went 11-5 straight, 3-2-1 with my best bets as part of the Pick Six podcast, but went 8-8 with my CBSSports.com expert picks. Why couldn’t the Packers score late for cover, rather than scoring that field goal?

As it stands, it was another solid week. The 3-2-1 takes my best bet record to a sizzling 40-27-3. Which I will take. My overall ATS record is now 82-90-8 and my direct record is 106-74-0.

We’re now into the December matches, which means it’s the critical time. It also means it’s time for contenders to really emerge on the court and pick plays. There are six weeks left. Let’s end with a big rush.

Buffalo Bills (-4) at the New England Patriots

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)

The Bills knocked the Pats out of the playoffs last year, so you know the Pats want revenge on them for that. Both teams played on Thanksgiving, so they are rested. But Josh Allen has played very well against the Pats in recent years, going 4-1 in the last five. It remains true. Bills earn it.

Take: Bills 28, Patriots 21

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons (+1)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Steelers are playing back-to-back road games outside of the division and this one is on a short week. It’s hard to do. It’s also difficult to prepare for the Falcons’ offense in a short week. Atlanta lost a close last week to Washington, but will bounce back here and beat the Steelers.

Take: Falcons 23, Steelers 20

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-8)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Broncos are lifeless on offense, which is never a good thing to play back-to-back games on the road and especially against a team that just suffered a horrible loss. The Ravens haven’t exactly brightened things up on offense, but they’ll do enough here to win and continue the Broncos’ misery all season.

Take: Ravens 26, Broncos 10

Green Bay Packers (-4) vs. Chicago Bears

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Aaron Rodgers should play in this one, which is not good for the Bears. He owned them in his career. Rodgers is stoned, but Justin Fields hurts for the Bears if he plays. Look for the Packers to get to Soldier Field and win a game against a team they’ve dominated in recent years.

Take: Packers 27, Bears 17

Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) vs. Detroit Lions

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

The Jaguars are coming off an impressive home win over the Ravens, while the Lions lost a tough one at Thanksgiving to the Bills. Both teams can score which means this game is likely to come apart. Look for plenty of points as Trevor Lawrence stays hot and the Lions score as well. The Jaguars will win a shootout.

Take: Jaguars 33, Lions 30

Cleveland Browns (-7) vs. Houston Texans

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

It’s the return of Deshaun Watson as quarterback for the Browns. It’s his first game and he’s coming against his old team. How perfect. Will there be rust? Does it matter against the Texans? No. The Browns are winning big.

Take: Browns 30, Texans 14

New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

This game is intriguing because of the battle between attacking Vikings and defending Jets, two very strong units. I think the Vikings will get the most out of it. So what is Mike White doing for the Jets offense? I don’t think he will play as well as last week. The Vikings win it.

Take: Vikings 23, Jets 17

Washington Commanders (-2.5) at New York Giants

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

It’s suddenly a big game for the playoffs. Both teams would be right now. Commanders got six of seven and three in a row running them and playing good defense. The Giants use the same formula to win games. Commanders have the best defense, which will show. They chain the victories.

Take: Commanders 23, Giants 19

Tennessee Titans (+5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

This is a game involving two teams who want to rule football. The Eagles are coming off a stellar running effort against the Packers, but the Titans’ defense is much better. The Titans will counter with Derrick Henry coming up against an Eagles defense that can’t stop the run. This game could end quickly with all races. The Eagles take it, but the Titans will trail.

Take: Eagles 24, Titans 23

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams (+7.5)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

The Rams are a mess and they’re done. Seattle is coming off a bad home loss to the Raiders where the defense was awful. The good news is that the Rams are terrible on offense. Seattle will get back on track in this one. The Seahawks win it, but the number is too big.

Take: Seahawks 27, Rams 20

Miami Dolphins vs. San Francisco 49ers (-4)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

It’s one of the best games of the week. Miami’s offense against the 49ers defense will be a treat to watch. Can the 49ers slow down Tua Tagovailoa and Miami’s passing game. The other thing to watch is if Miami’s defense, which hasn’t played so well, can slow down the 49ers offense. I don’t think they do. The 49ers will take it.

Take: 49ers 28, Dolphins 22

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+2)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

This is a rematch of last January’s AFC Championship Game, a game the Bengals won in Kansas City. The Bengals also beat the Chiefs at home last year. This Chiefs team is currently the best in the league. Patrick Mahomes and the passing game will be hard to stop. But so will Joe Burrow with Ja’Marr Chase back. It will be a shootout. The chiefs gain a relative.

Take: Chiefs 35, Bengals 34

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders (+1.5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Both of these teams are coming off spectacular wins last week, wins they badly needed. The Raiders saw running back Josh Jacobs go wild, which he can do here against the Chargers’ poor defense. But look for Justin Herbert to have a great day too. It will be wild, but the Raiders will take it.

Take: Raiders 34, Chargers 31

Indianapolis Colts vs. Dallas Cowboys (-11)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, FuboTV)

The Cowboys defensive line against the Colts offensive line is a major mismatch. Matt Ryan could have a long night. Not only that, but the Cowboys will be rested while the Colts play on the road after a short week. It’s hard to do. Switch off.

Take: Cowboys 30, Colts 16

New Orleans Saints (+3.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, FuboTV)

These two have losing records, but this is a big division game. Can you believe it? The Saints had a lot of success against Tom Brady during his time in Tampa. But it’s another Saints team. They are limited in attack. This can be seen.

Take: Bucs 20, Saints 19